This is exactly what happens -- anyone browsing to the backend login form show up in the exception log for "admin query string" (which triggers the email notification) and eventually they get blocked.
I had this happening recently on two different hosts using the latest stable release of Admin Tools, and once it even blocked an IP on the exception whitelist and configuraton settings whitelists. Normally this does not happen.
Both of these sites are now using the latest developer release because I was getting an error screen when I tried to open WAF Exceptions in the stable release. This problem is absent in the developer release, and the WAF seems to be working properly too, except now WAF completely fails to require the secret URL parameter on one of these two sites. (I am guessing this may be due to this site using Cloudflare, since the WAF blocking seems to interact poorly with it. When WAF blocks a request, CloudFlare seems to keep waiting for a result and will display its own "site down" screen after a while.)
In sum:
- Version 2.2.0 - Admin query string of any type creates an exception, unless the user is whitelisted. (But occasionally the whitelist seems to fail.)
- Version revAD022B1 - Secret URL parameter is ignored, possibly due to Cloudflare.
System1 info:
Host: Media Temple Grid Service (it's crap)
PHP Built on: Linux n21 3.2.6mtv10 #1 SMP Thu Mar 1 07:38:49 PST 2012 x86_64
Database Version: 5.1.55-rel12.6
Database Collation: utf8_general_ci
PHP Version: 5.3.10
Web Server: Apache/2.0.54
Web Server to PHP interface: cgi-fcgi
Joomla! Version: Joomla! 1.5.25 Stable [ senu takaa ama mamni ] 14-November-2011 18:00 GMT
User Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 6.1; WOW64) AppleWebKit/535.11 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/17.0.963.56 Safari/535.11
System2 info:
Host: Site5 reseller shared hosting
PHP Built on: Linux r5-chicago.webserversystems.com 2.6.32.46-grsec #1 SMP Thu Sep 1 14:04:36 BST 2011 x86_64
Database Version: 5.0.92-50-log
Database Collation: utf8_general_ci
PHP Version: 5.2.17
Web Server: Apache
Web Server to PHP interface: cgi
Joomla! Version: Joomla! 1.5.25 Stable [ senu takaa ama mamni ] 14-November-2011 18:00 GMT
User Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 6.1; WOW64) AppleWebKit/535.11 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/17.0.963.56 Safari/535.11